Mantic raises $25 million for event-forecasting AI
London-based Mantic raised a $25 million seed round to develop a system that estimates the probability of political, economic and cultural events.
Mantic specializes in testing frontier AI models on historical data, grading their results and improving forecasting accuracy. Radical Ventures led the round.
The round and team
Mantic announced a $25 million seed round on September 18, 2026. Radical Ventures led the financing, with participation from Microsoft’s M12 fund, Thinking Machines Lab, Balderton Capital and other investors. The company’s valuation was not disclosed.
Former Google DeepMind researcher Toby Shevlane and Ben Day founded the startup in 2024. The new capital is expected to support product development and expansion with corporate and government customers.
Product and limits of verification
Mantic adapts frontier models from other laboratories for forecasting tasks. The system assigns probabilities to historical events, compares them with actual outcomes and uses those evaluations to improve subsequent predictions.
In the 2026 Metaculus Cup, Mantic scored higher than every human participant. However, performance in a single tournament does not guarantee the same accuracy in every real-world business or political setting. The company says some businesses and government organizations use its system, but it has not disclosed customer names or contract values.
Sources and image credits
Sources
News date: September 18, 2026. Mantic official website: https://mantic.com/
Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/technology/ai-startup-mantic-raises-25-million-superhuman-forecasting-2026-09-18/
This article was prepared by the Founders Cafe editorial team.
